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This week is pretty huge on the data and announcement front- with plenty going on in the market since the strong NFP data on Friday which supported the Dollar against the Euro and Sterling into the close.

Sterling hovered around its highest levels in almost three months against the euro today, as markets raised their bets on rate cuts by the European Central Bank, which widened their divergence with the Bank of England.

Last week’s data releases provided strength for the Pound after a pretty downbeat month or so on the market- showing that UK PMI numbers were back over the 50 area, which means that the UK economy is no longer contracting- we may not see massive growth over the next year, however, a stagnating economy is much better than one in recession- which looks more likely for the Eurozone currently.

Last week was generally pretty supportive for Sterling exchange rates from a data perspective- however on Friday this all changed very quickly as retail sales numbers came out as low as they were last in the pandemic. These spending numbers have pretty much confirmed that the BoE are finished with their hiking cycle, as clearly the cost of living crisis is still a big issue amongst the UK public- this alongside worse than usual weather has contributed towards less appetite for spending.

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Yesterday morning saw UK Inflation drop comfortably below 5% for the first time in 2 years. The lower energy price cap imposed on households at the start of October was a main contributor towards this figure. Food Bill prices also eased last month, dropping to their lowest levels since June last year at 10.1%.

British data earlier in the day showed UK workers' wages grew slightly less quickly in the three months to September but remained close to their record pace.
The figures will likely do little to ease the Bank of England's concerns about inflationary pressures and did nothing to change market-based forecasts for a UK rate cut in June 2024 at the earliest.