Tsunami to hit the Algarve - but nobody knows when...

earthquakeA new documentary about a Mega-tsunami hitting Portugal and Spain has alerted those in its predicted path that there is little than can be done to avoid disaster, death and economic loss.

The question is not if, but when will the tsunami hit the southern coastline with the documentary La Gran Ola (The Great Wave) claiming that that there are no emergency plans in place in Spain or Portugal to deal with this scientific certainty.

In the documentary, Fernando Arroyo discusses several testimonies from Portuguese scientists and concludes that, at some point, the Iberian Peninsula will be devastated by a large tsunami on the scale of the one in 1755.

The chances of a mega-tsunami hitting the Iberian coasts tomorrow, or 100 years from now "are exactly the same," warns Arroyo who says the consequences will depend on how well we are prepared - which currently, is “not very prepared at all.”
 
Filmed in Portugal and Spain, with the collaboration of scientists from both countries, the documentary looks at the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and resulting tsunami. This earthquake measured an estimated 9 on the Richter scale and set off a massive tsunami that devastated the Portuguese capital and wreaked havoc along the Spanish coast between Huelva and Cadiz.

"If what the scientific community foresees does occur, we will face one of the biggest catastrophes in history: a tsunami with waves between 5 and 15 metres high, which will reach the Iberian coast in just quarter of an hour," and will "affect hundreds of thousands of people and generate huge economic losses.”

The documentary points out that the Gulf of Cadiz is on the Azores-Gibraltar fault, a tectonic border makes the area sensitive to earthquakes, which in turn can trigger tsunamis.

"No government has not done anything," although politicians know that "there is a seismic risk and that this can be reduced," according to Mário Lopes, professor at the Instituto Superior Técnico de Lisboa.

The director underscores the importance of creating emergency and warning plans as well as "raising awareness" that the fact that a tsunami "has not occurred in the recent past is a fluke."

However, with spooky timing, Portugal’s Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) announced today that it is to monitor climate and earthquakes with sensors located in deep water off the Algarve

Portugal already is part of a European network of seabed observatories, and new sensors are to be installed south of Sagres, to monitor earthquakes, climate change and marine ecosystems.

The network of observatories, EMSO (European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and Water-column Observatory), brings together eight countries, including Portugal, and is based in Rome.

Portugal has been participating in a deep marine observatory in the Gulf of Cadiz, a zone of seismic interest and one where the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea meet.

One of the IPMA researchers involved in the project, Pedro Brito, explained that new sensors will be installed between 2,000 metres and 3,000 metres under water, which will allow a continuous long-term observation of the water column and will enable the collection of data on temperature, pressure, seismic activity, water properties and current velocities, and on seabed and underwater life.

The European network of observatories covers key European sea sites in the Arctic and Atlantic oceans and the Mediterranean and Black Seas. France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Romania, the United Kingdom and Spain, as well as Portugal, all are involved.

So when the apocalyptic earthquake happens, we will know about it. How the Algarve’s coastal population is evacuated within 15 minutes is not covered in any government civil defence plan as it is impossible to achieve, so has been largely ignored.

The best the government can do is to estimate the number of deaths and work on ways swiftly to re-establish power, water and communication in affected areas.