The final count is taking place today as overseas votes continue to arrive, but the ruling coalition now lies emasculated on the Assembly floor.
Last night it became clear that the Passos Coelho-Paulo Portas coalition party nominally may have won the election, but forming a solid government on their own is impossible and including another party in its coalition is fraught with problems, a situation that concerns European leaders and lenders alike.
A minority government in Portugal certainly will not meet with approval from the country’s lenders as they know, as does the coalition, that no minority administration has survived a full term in since the 1974 revolution.
The ruling coalition has around 38.5% percent of the vote with António Costa’s socialists coming a close second with 32.4% but the final figures will not be confirmed until tonight.
Over the next few days the President Cavaco Sila will have to work out the best way forward for a nation whose debt is higher than before the crisis despite cheery pre-election statistics focusing on the few good news areas.
Passos Coelho said he was ready to form a new government but admitted that he will have to change or compromise on policies to enable any legislation to go through, especially the 2016 State Budget.
In the past few years the coalition has pushed through so much legislation that the minority parties have objected to, it will be a bitter pill for either side to swallow to have to join forces, even if for the good of the country.
"We failed to reach a majority in parliament," said the current PM as the results came in showing the government provisionally with 100 seats in a parliament of 230 MPs.
Passos Coelho already has expressed a readiness for an agreement with the Socialist party, referring to a possible meeting this week to discuss 'possible reforms.'
Costa is in no mood to do a deal with the coalition and, despite failing to win a mandate to govern, said the Socialists will stick to their election policies, pointing out that "There was a large majority of Portuguese who voted for change."
The surprise increase in support for Catarina Martins’ Left Bloc to 10% of the vote puts her in a potentially powerful position especially if she links up with Jerónimo Sousa’s PCP communist party which gained an 8.2% share.
The self-inflicted continuation of the austerity programme is not unique to Portugal as Greece and Spain also back the tough measures insisted on by international lenders but the lack of a majority in Portugal leaves her weakened.
Today is Day of the Republic. It used to be a national holiday but maybe it is apt that the politicians in charge use the time to plan how to move forward in a country that in most respects is in the same state or worse than when the coalition took control.
The socialists’ lack of punch in a situation where unemployment remains high, taxes are higher and growth is slow, points to a lack of clearly communicated policies and poor leadership by Costa whose chance at getting the top job looked good in pre-election polls.
Over the next few days the President of the Republic, Cavaco Silva has to discuss with party leaders what is best for the country rather than what is best for individuals but there are no prescribed guidelines or rules for him to follow.
Bucking the trend, the Algarve returned to socialist control as the coalition executive’s admitted hatred of the region has seen the Algarve punished by punitive motorway tolls, lack of agreed road upgrade work, the loss of control over the region’s ports, moves to turn the area into an oil production zone and many promises made and not delivered.
Loulé, Albufeira and São Brás electoral areas voted for the coalition but the rest of the Algarve and Alentejo voted against, with support for the coalition coming, as is traditional, from Lisbon and pretty much all areas to the north.
The political horse-trading will start tomorrow with Cavaco Silva having his work cut out to make sense of this muddled situation.
With abstentions in the Algarve running at a noteworthy 48.62% against a national figure of 43.11% the lack of engagement in this election was evident and perhaps it is no surprise that the political parties are in as much a mess as the economy.
For a full list of MPs, see:
http://www.jn.pt/multimedia/infografia.aspx?content_id=4816336
