It seems clear that the majority of Britons want to quit the EU. Most probably the prime minister will have to negotiate the terms of the exit.
Most probably the political leaders of the EU, those who have been involved in scandals such as the special ‘almost no-tax’ Luxembourg agreements with American and German mega-corporations, will offer symbolic advantages for the UK to remain in the EU.
This was what happened to Ireland to force a second referendum where Ireland accepted the very tough super-national constitution, changing the democratic rules from the Maastricht treaty.
The same agreement was previously rejected by the people of Denmark and France, but forced on them by their politicians.
But the British most probably will not accept the proposal that they will be worse off if Scotland, North Ireland and eventually Wales exit the UK.
Britons love their Queen and their independence and hate the growing bureaucracy, central power, corruption, bank scandals and fraud.
The people of Finland, Austria and Greece have clearly shown their disenchantment with the Euro. They watch Sweden, Poland and the Czech Republic and say their countries should quit the Euro, not the EU.
This is not possible. They look to Norway and Switzerland which are not in the EU but enjoy all the advantages of agreements with the EU but not the problems of being a full member.
There are no clear rules on how to quit the EU. The dream of the founders of the EEC was based on real democracy and clean politicians.
They could not think of a country wishing to exit.
But the current EU is a nightmare rather than a dream. The funds going to member states go through a gigantic bureaucracy and often end up directed at businesses allied to ruling political parties, rather than to those which can bring jobs to the country.
Would a Brexit affect the Algarve? Probably not, as both the Pound and the Euro will have to adjust to this new situation and both will drop in relation to the US Dollar.
This means that UK will probably export more machines, chemicals, etc, which have a higher added value, boosting jobs and later, economic growth.
I believe this recession will continue for another four years. The struggle now is for a better democracy with changes in some governments, as we can foresee in Spain and France.
Then a new array of politicians is needed in Brussels for any real chance of a democratic EU.
Written by Jack Soifer
