'Trump, le Pen and the Algarve'

thedonaldI love to read results scientific research on many subjects such as sustainability, innovation and econometrics - sometimes on the real reasons behind behaviour so, having read some reliable papers, I wrote on Trump and LePen: http://canalc.pt/index.php/2017/02/23/le-pen-vencera-como-trump-venceu/

In summary: On 01/03/10 I said on RTP-TV that Portugal was already in a depression, i.e. a long recession. Fatima Campos asked if it would be three years, I said "eight to ten."

Three months before the vote I said that BREXIT voters would win. For months I have been saying that after BREXIT will come GREXIT, FINLEXIT, AUSEXIT. No crystal ball, I read reports.

LePen will win the elections and the extremes in the Netherlands and Germany will stop democracy there. In 2013 in Stockholm, in a debate on the bilingual-book by 8 authors from 5 countries, 'PORTUGAL PÓS-TROIKA? ECONOMIC DEMOCRACY?' I replied to the then CEO of the NOBEL Foundation, Michael Sohlman, that the solution to EU-problems would be a new EFTA.

The Free Trade Association of the seven countries that did not found the EEC was good, with some 30 fixed employees and 90 others, instead of the 300,000 bureaucrats in the EU. Centralization brings greed and illegalities.

Many governors in the US and Brazil were elected with neuromarketing. The TV campaign against President Dilma used this technique. Trump used it.

I read in http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/the-british-data-crunchers-who-say-they-helped-donald-trump-to-win/ : of the contraradictory messages from Trump.

The apparent inconsistencies are the fruits of neuromarketing with different messages for each voter. He followed the audience reaction, which Cathy O'Neil noted in Aug.16.“family would have donated… funds, particularly the secretive and consistently profitable black-box Medallion”

"Almost everything Trump said (in the debate with Hillary) was data-driven," says Alex Nix, owner of Cambridge Analytica, who sells psychometrics to marketers. By the 3rd debate Trump’s team tested 175,000 different ads, to find the most accurate versions via Facebook. Differentiated by nanodetails, they focus on each recipient with the best neural approach: different titles, colors, subtitles, with a photo or video. This tuning reaches everyone, even the smallest groups”, said Nix in an interview.

"We can target villages or apartment blocks in a segmented way. To the Little Haiti barrio in Miami, the Trump campaign told the failure of the Clinton Foundation after the earthquake in Haiti, to win votes from Hillary."

Says the UK's magaizine, SPECTATOR: “There are reports that their main investor is the secretive hedge-fund billionaire Robert Mercer, and that the switch from Cruz to Trump tracked his allegiances."

The independent journalists' newsletter, POLITICO, writes that C.Analytica is linked to the British SCL that sells to governments, political and multinational corporations, disinformation campaigns, influence by social networks, and details about voters. The Mercer family would have donated some US$37 million.

In the Wikipedia it reads(short) on the Mercer group:


"Founded by James Simons, a former cold war code-breaker… successful hedge funds using quantitative trading… which rely on powerful computers and sophisticated maths to guide investment strategies… particularly the secretive and consistently profitable black-box "Medallion".

Yes+Nope! Many tourists which today fly to New York for cheap shopping for Chinese and Mexican made gadgets may choose Portugal. Some who enjoy Florida may choose the Algarve. LePen will lower income taxes and many French who planned retire here will change plans.
Remember Hitler and Stalin? Can we resist?


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